I HAVE said so before, and I shall say so again, even after the endless talkabout it. Indeed no war has been talked about so much before it happened.To quote the classic movie line: “If you have to shoot, shoot. Don’t talk!”
In all Netanyahu’s bluster about the inevitable war, one sentence standsout: “In the Committee of Inquiry after the war, I shall take upon myself thesole responsibility, I and I alone!”
A very revealing statement.
First of all, committees of inquiry are appointed only after a military failure.There was no such committee after the 1948 War of Independence, norafter the 1956 Sinai War or the 1967 Six-day War. There were, however,committees of inquiry after the 1974 Yom Kippur war and the 1982 and 2006Lebanon Wars. By conjuring up the specter of another such committee,Netanyahu unconsciously treats this war as an inevitable failure.
Second, under Israeli law, the entire Government of Israel is theCommander in Chief of the armed forces. Under another law, all ministersbear “collective responsibility”. TIME magazine, which is becomingmore ridiculous by the week, may crown “King Bibi”, but we still have nomonarchy. Netanyahu is no more than primus inter pares.
Third, in his statement Netanyahu expresses boundless contempt for hisfellow ministers. They don’t count.
Netanyahu considers himself a modern day Winston Churchill. I don’tseem to remember Churchill announcing, upon assuming office, “I takeresponsibility for the coming defeat.” Even in the desperate situation ofthat moment, he trusted in victory. And the word “I” did not figure large inhis speech.
IN THE daily brainwashing, the problem is presented in military terms. Thedebate, such as it is, concerns military capabilities and dangers.
Israelis are especially, and understandably, worried by the rain of tensof thousands of missiles expected to fall on all parts of Israel, not onlyfrom Iran, but also from Lebanon and Gaza. The minister responsible forcivil defense deserted just this week, and another one, a refugee from thehapless Kadima party, has taken his place. Everybody knows that a largepart of the population (including myself) is completely defenseless.
Ehud Barak has announced that no more than a measly 500 Israelis will bekilled by enemy missiles. I do not aspire to the honor of being one of them,though I live quite near the Ministry of Defense..
But the military confrontation between Israel and Iran is only a part of thepicture, and not the most important one.
As I have pointed out in the past, far more important is the impact on theworld economy, already steeped in a profound crisis. An Israeli attackwill be viewed by Iran as American-inspired, and the reaction will beaccordingly, as explicitly stated by Iran this week.
The Persian Gulf is a bottle, whose neck is the narrow Strait of Hormuz,which is totally controlled by Iran. The huge American aircraft carriersnow stationed in the gulf will be well advised to get out before it is too late.They resemble those antique sailing ships which enthusiasts assemblein bottles. Even the powerful weaponry of the US will not be able to keepthe strait open. Simple land-to-sea missiles will be quite enough to keep itclosed for months. To open it, a prolonged land operation by the US andits allies will be required. A long and bloody business with unpredictableconsequences.
A major part of the world’s oil supplies has to pass through this uniquewaterway. Even the mere threat of its closure will cause oil prices to shootsky-high. Actual hostilities will result in a worldwide economic collapse,with hundreds of thousands – if not millions – of new unemployed.
Each of these victims will curse Israel. Since it will be crystal clear thatthis is an Israeli war, the rage will be turned against us. Worse, muchworse – since Israel insists that it is “the state of the Jewish people”, therage may take the form of an unprecedented outbreak of anti-Semitism.Newfangled Islamophobes will revert to old-time Jew-haters. “The Jews areour disaster,” as the Nazis used to proclaim.
This may be worst in the US. Until now, Americans have watched withadmirable tolerance as their Middle East policy is practically dictated by
Israel. But even the almighty AIPAC and its allies will not be able to containthe outburst of public anger. They will give way like the levees of NewOrleans.
THIS WILL have a direct impact on a central calculation of the warmongers.
In private conversations, but not only there, they assert that America willbe immobilized on the eve of elections. During the last few weeks beforeNovember 6, both candidates will be mortally afraid of the Jewish lobby.
The calculation goes like this: Netanyahu and Barak will attack withoutgiving a damn for American wishes. The Iranian counter-attack will bedirected against American interests. The US will be dragged into the waragainst its will.
But even in the unlikely event that the Iranians act with supreme self-restraint and do not attack US targets, contrary to their declarations,President Obama will be compelled to save us, send huge quantities ofarms and ammunition, bolster our anti-missile defenses, fund the war.Otherwise he will be accused of leaving Israel in the lurch and Mitt Romneywill be elected as the savior of the Jewish State.
This calculation is based on historical experience. All Israeli governmentsin the past have exploited American election years for their purposes.
In 1948, when the US was required to recognize the new Israeli stateagainst the express advice of both the Secretary of State and the Secretaryof Defense, President Truman was fighting for his political life. Hiscampaign was bankrupt. At the last moment Jewish millionaires leaped intothe breach, Truman and Israel were saved.
In 1956, President Eisenhower was in the middle of his re-electioncampaign when Israel attacked Egypt in collusion with France and Britain.It was a miscalculation – Eisenhower did not need Jewish votes and moneyand put a stop to the adventure. In other election years the stakes werelower, but always the occasion was used to gain some concessions fromthe US.
Will it work this time? If Israel unleashes a war on the eve of elections, inan obvious effort to blackmail the president, will the American public moodsupport Israel – or could it go the other way? It will be a critical gambleof historic proportions. But like Mitt Romney, Netanyahu is a protégé ofthe Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, and he may be no more averseto gambles than the poor suckers who leave their money in Adelson’scasinos.
WHERE ARE the Israelis in all this?
In spite of the constant brainwashing, polls show that the majority ofIsraelis are dead set against an attack. Netanyahu and Barak are seen astwo addicts, many say megalomaniacs, who are beyond rational thinking.
One of the most striking aspects of the situation is that our army chief andthe entire General Staff, as well as the chiefs of the Mossad and the ShinBet, and almost all their predecessors, are totally and publicly opposed tothe attack.
It is one of the rare occasions when military commanders are moremoderate than their political chiefs, though it has happened in Israelbefore. One may well ask: how can political leaders start a fateful war whenpractically all their military advisors, who know our military capabilities andthe chances for success, are against it?
One of the reasons for this opposition is that the army chiefs know betterthan anyone else how totally dependent on the US Israel really is. Ourrelationship with America is the very basis of our national security.
Also, it seems doubtful whether Netanyahu and Barak have a majority forthe attack even in their own government and inner cabinet. The ministersknow that apart from everything else, the attack would drive investors andtourists away, causing huge damage to Israel’s economy.
So why do most Israelis still believe that the attack is imminent?
Israelis, by and large, have been totally convinced by now (a) that Iran isgoverned by a bunch of crazy ayatollahs beyond rationality, and (b) that,once in the possession of a nuclear bomb, they will certainly drop it on us.
These convictions are based on the utterances of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,in which he declared that he will wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
But did he really say that? Sure, he has repeatedly expressed hisconviction that the Zionist Entity will disappear from the face of the earth.But it seems that he never actually said that he – or Iran – would ensure thatresult.
That may seem only a small rhetorical difference, but in this context it isvery important.
Also, Ahmadinejad may have a big mouth, but his actual power in Iran wasnever very great and is shrinking fast. The ayatollahs, the real rulers, arefar from being irrational. Their whole behavior since the revolution showsthem to be very cautious people, averse to foreign adventures, scarred bythe long war with Iraq that they did not start and did not want.
A nuclear-armed Iran may be an inconvenient near-neighbor, but the threatof a “second holocaust” is a figment of the manipulated imagination. Noayatollah will drop a bomb when the certain response will be the totalannihilation of all Iranian cities and the end of the glorious cultural historyof Persia. Deterrence was, after all, the whole sense of producing an Israelbomb
IF NETANYAHU & Co. were really frightened by the Iranian Bomb, theywould do one of two things:
Either agree to the de-nuclearization of the region, giving up our ownnuclear armaments (highly unlikely);
Or make peace with the Palestinians and the entire Arab world, therebydisarming the ayatollahs’ hostility to Israel.
But Netanyahu's actions show that, for him, keeping the West Bank isvastly more important than the Iranian bomb.
What better proof do we need of the craziness of this whole scare?